Futures Research: the Complete Guide

Futures Research and Strategic Foresight provides many insights for your organization or business. In this article I walk you through all the steps of the 5A model: from getting started, to exploring trends, creating scenarios, to strategy and implementing them in your organization.

How do you do futures research?

What is my approach as a futurist, futurologist and strategic foresight expert when doing futures research or exploration? I work with the 5A model.

These are the steps of the model:

Anticipate: description of assignment and time horizon;
Analyze: identify relevant trends and developments;
Articulate: creating scenarios, what are possible, probable and desirable futures;
Assess: test strategies, adapt, plan and set up small pilots and experiments;
Act: continuously monitoring and adjusting the course. Futures research and strategic foresight are never finished.

I explain the activities in the different steps below, followed by an overview of all methods for each step.

If you want to work with me:

If you would like to hire me for a futures study or exploration, please make a no-obligation booking request immediately.
~~Want more information first? Then check out my page Strategic Foresight Expert, in it we walk through all the steps of the 5A model.~~
Interested in a component, such as identifying trends or creating scenarios? Then check out the scenario planning workshop or the lecture Trends 2040, for example.

In this video, I explain all the steps and my process:

The first step is to Anticipate.

1. Anticipate

I start all my assignments with Looking Forward. Whether it is a whole future exploration, a lecture, workshop, a lesson at school, or a consulting job.

These are questions I ask anyway:

What is the time horizon? Is it 5 years, 10 years or even longer?
How broadly do we want to research? Into the future of a product, a team, a company, a municipality, an industry or the whole world?
What do we include? Only technological changes, or also elements such as demographics, economy, competitors, etc.
Who do we involve? Senior management, a few colleagues, key customers and/or other stakeholders?

Another important issue I discuss in this step is what happens when the futures study is complete.

Has the organization already thought about what they want to do with the results? If so, is money and time available to turn the insights into strategic plans, actions or innovations?

This seems logical, but by no means always happens.

The next step is Analyze.

2. Analyze

During Exploration, we identify trends, developments and weak signals. We do this through methods such as the future triangle, the implication tree, tension search and the Impact matrix.

2A. Future Triangle

My favorite methodology in this step is Sohail Inayatullah’s future triangle. This model consists of three elements:

Push of the present: What notable (mega) trends are changing the future?
Pull from the future: What are new developments and signals of change?
Weight of the history: What are the deep structures or institutions that characterize our area of interest?

Take, for example, the future of urban mobility. That was an assignment I worked on in Copenhagen.

Everyone writes down trends and developments relevant to urban mobility on separate post-its.
On a flip chart, workshop participants create three columns for the categories from the future triangle.
Participants stick the post-its in the appropriate place, sometimes preceded by a discussion of the trend (and of its place in the categories).

Some of the trends we discussed in Copenhagen: increasing urbanization, more advanced sensor technology, the current infrastructure (with roads, gas stations, charging stations and parking lots) and the sense of freedom that owning a car gives.

2B. Implication tree

Another method is the implication tree. This working form helps to think about first and second order effects of developments and trends.

Example:

A relevant development from the Future Triangle is aging.
A first order effect may be that older people travel less (private and work).
One implication may be that therefore there are fewer traffic jams. That is a second-order effect.

This is what makes it tricky: the effects may in turn affect each other. Still, it is an important exercise to be aware of possible consequences of choices and developments.

The result of this method is that in addition to the trends and developments from the Future Triangle, we have other items that we will explore further.

2C. Tensions

After the future triangle and the implication tree, we usually have a huge collection of trends and issues. We call this collection themes. The next step is to look for tension between these themes. Tension as in: we don’t know which way this theme will develop.

An example is the tension you feel between:

Access to mobility: think car sharing;
car ownership: the sense of freedom and autonomy that car ownership gives.

We write these tensions on new post-its. Preferably with different color than we used with the Future Triangle or Implication Tree.

2D. Impact Matrix

We will plot the tensions from the previous step on the Impact Matrix. This form of work helps to identify the most relevant items for follow-up.

To do this, I grab a flipchart with the workshop participants. On the flipchart we draw two lines: one of the x-axis and one for the y-axis.

The x-axis represents uncertainty: from low uncertainty to high uncertainty.
The y-axis represents impact. This axis runs from low impact to high impact.

Then we draw two lines: one halfway along the x-axis and one halfway along the y-axis. This gives us 4 quadrants.

Next, we take out the post-its with tensions. For each tension, we discuss in our group how certain we are about the direction the tension will develop and the impact of the tension.

The result is a classification of trends in the 4 quadrants:

Low impact, both with low and high uncertainty: we monitor these tensions but do not act on them directly. Example: the tension about whether people use a car primarily for work or for leisure.
High impact and low uncertainty. These are tensions we need to address immediately. Example: electrification versus fossil fuels does move toward electrification.
High impact and high uncertainty. These are the tensions we want to use in preparing our scenarios. Do people primarily want access to mobility or to own a car themselves?

We address the tensions in the quadrant of high impact and high uncertainty. These form the basis of the next step of Articulate.

After Anticipate and Analyze, the next step is Articulate.

3. Articulate

In this step, we look for suitable axes to form four scenarios with, create the scenarios and come up with an appealing title.

The Cone of Plausibility shows that scenarios offer multiple possibilities for the future. With scenarios, you don’t just focus on the expected line, but rather plausible or possible futures. After all, we cannot assume that everything will remain the same as it is now.

3A. Axis search

Within all the tensions from the last step of Explore, we look for two tensions. The extremes of these developments form the lines of a cross with which we will build scenarios.

For example, with the assignment on the future of mobility, we came up with the following lines:

Strict government regulation versus freeing the market;
Focus on data sharing versus emphasis on privacy.

That way you get four quadrants, for example, strict regulation combined with a focus on sharing data.

Each quadrant is a scenario that we then develop: what does urban mobility look like in this scenario?

3B. Creating scenarios

The scenario is usually a short story about what the future looks like. Helpful questions to arrive at the future story are:

How did we get here? What happened?
How does the story feel? What is the taste? In a fancy German word, what is the Zeitgeist?
What does a day in life look like?
Depending on the mission: a consumer buying our product, a user of our service, or a citizen of our municipality?

This step requires quite a bit of creativity and imagination. One way to encourage this is to not host the workshop at the company itself or at the town hall. This is because a location has a lot of influence on your thought process. If you do this exercise at your workplace, you will automatically think more from the here-and-now because you are constantly reminded of it.

3C. Coming up with an appealing name

One of the fun parts of this step is coming up with an appealing name. Ideally, the name should immediately evoke an image or feeling.

Consider, for example:

Data Driven Dynamo. Scenario about the future of mobility in which users continuously share data with automakers.
The Tuscany of Belgium. Scenario for Belgian-Limburg on the future of nature conservation and restoration.
Regionally Rooted. Scenario from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) in which local and regional communities call the shots.

Finally, a good scenario is plausible, relevant and radical. In my experience as a workshop facilitator, the last criterion of radicality is the most difficult. So my role is usually to excite and challenge the groups to make their scenario a little more extreme.

After Anticipate, Analyze, and Articulate, the next step is Assess.

4. Assess

In Assess, we translate the insights from the third step into strategic plans, actions and/or innovations.

If you skip this step, you run the risk that futures research will remain just a fun creative exercise. Whereas the added value for me really lies in this conversion from the future to the here and now.

The most commonly used methods in this step are:

Strategy session
Backcasting
Wind Tunnel

In all methods, you need scenarios from the previous step of Imagining.

4A. Strategy session

Time to taste the scenario. Once you have created a scenario, you can start using it. Scenarios usually have the following goals when it comes to strategy:

If we apply our current strategy to this scenario, what happens? Do we need to adjust our strategy?
What innovative ideas does this scenario evoke in us?
If you created multiple scenarios: what are plans or strategic choices that work out well in most scenarios?
If you prefer a scenario: if we have new proposals or plans, is it in line with that scenario?

Often scenarios, as for municipalities, serve as input for a vision of the future.

What I personally like is when a municipality wants to involve residents later on. What do they think of the scenarios? What appeals to them? What doesn’t? How would they themselves live, work and recreate in those scenarios?

4B. Backcasting

With backcasting, we engage in a conversation about what needs to happen to achieve a desired future. It is a more formal method than the Strategy session.

For example, a starting question is:

Imagine it is 2040 and our desired scenario has become a reality. What are key events that led to the desired outcome?

Another variation of this starting question is: It is 2040 and one of the undesirable scenarios has come true. What have been important turning points that have led to this? What could we do to counteract or positively influence those moments?

4C. Wind Tunnel

Wind tunnel is a translation of a well-known method from industrial design: the wind tunnel test. In an enclosed room, wind blows on airplanes, race cars and even cyclists to calculate air currents, drag and aerodynamics.

You can do the same thing with a company’s strategy. You look at how the strategy or a plan scores in one or more scenarios.

A strategy is robust if it works in (almost) all scenarios.
A strategy is fragile if it does not work in (almost) all scenarios.
A strategy is a great bet if it does not work in the majority of scenarios, but works extremely well in a specific scenario, for example.

Based on the insights from the wind tunnel, you can then determine to adjust the strategy.

The final step is Act.

5. Act

Futures research is never finished. Because you can go through the whole process from Looking Ahead to Preparing, but by then you are at least a few weeks or months away.

Therefore, the best practice with this work is to periodically go through all or parts of the process.

For example, you can also review the trends and developments from the second step of Exploring after a year. Are there things there that are suddenly accelerating or that are emerging now? Should we then recalibrate our scenarios?

VUCA time

This time of continuous change is also known as VUCA: volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. This demands quite a lot from organizations and their leadership.

For example, I read an interview with John Pettigrew, the CEO of National Grid, the grid operator of the British power grid. He puts it nicely:

Change and disruption are the order of the day. Leaders must therefore be able to move quickly, adapt their plans and be agile.

In short, you need to be constantly alert and flexible. The 5V model then helps to see, assess and anticipate changes.

Many companies are already aware of this. Research by the Nuremberg Institute shows that over 90% of larger U.S. and European companies are doing futures research. A smaller percentage, 34% of companies, have set up a special department or team for this purpose.

The benefits of futures research.

What is the benefit of Futures Research?

Futures research can be quite intensive, as you might infer from the roadmap. To get the best results, it is necessary to put in this time and energy.

So is it worth it? What does such a trajectory provide?

Pierre Wack, the founder of scenario planning, said this about it:

The main goal is reperception. That is awakening to the possibility of the future being different from the past or how one expects it to be.

Or take Jane McGonigal. She is author of the book Imaginable and she is affiliated with the American Institute for the Future (IFTF). She states:

It’s better to be surprised by a simulation than blindsided by reality.

In a future exploration, you examine the future as it can be, without the pretense of predicting the future.

Benefits of future scenarios

If you can’t predict the future with a scenario, what good is it? Jan Nekkers shared the 4Cs of what scenario thinking yields. As far as I’m concerned, his enumeration fits futures research as well:

Cognitive: working on foresight to organize complex reality;
Communication: working together to explore the future creates a common language and collective images of the future;
Creative: researching the future takes you out of the here-and-now. This helps to come up with new ideas and innovate.
Commitment: creating a scenario together creates more support for the subsequent choices and actions that follow from that scenario.

In short, the added value of futures studies is often not only in the end result, but also in the process leading up to it. After all, working together on the future creates a common language, support and shared insights.

An overview of all methods in futures research.

Future research methods overview

What are all the methods within futures research and exploration?

Step out of 5A model	Method
Anticipate	Kick-off with project team
Analyze	Horizon scanning
Analyze	Trend audit
Analyze	Interviews
Analyze	Trend analysis with AI (see video)
Analyze	Delphi method
Analyze	Online consultation, such as IdeaDrop or questionnaires
Analyze	Future Triangle
Analyze	Implication Tree
Analyze	Impact Matrix
Articulate	Scenario planning (see video)
Articulate	Science Fiction Prototyping
Assess	Strategy Session
Assess	Backcasting
Assess	Wind Tunnel
Assess	Strategy Playbox
Act	Team or department for futures studies.
Act	Chief Futurist Officer
Act	Future Think Tank

Are you curious about a method? Leave a comment or contact me!

What are tips for foresight?

Tip for future research

When starting a Futures Research project, I am especially curious about the context of the question.

I learned this when I started working at a consulting firm after studying Innovation Science.

It was March 2010. I was driving along the A27 back to our office in Utrecht with an experienced colleague of a year over fifty. ‘That was a frustrating conversation,’ I said to him. ‘We didn’t talk at all about the topics that were their application.’

His reaction has always stayed with me:

‘Peter, as a consultant, you should always look for the question behind the question.’

I do the same now when starting futures research. What is the context? What is the real reason for their question? What prompted the futures research? Who think this project is important? Who are critical or skeptical?

What are the best books on futures research and foresight?

Books futures research

These are the best books I have read on futures research:

Book The Signals are talking by Amy Webb
Book The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz
Book Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner

Curious about all my book tips? Then check out this page of book tips future research, innovation and technology.

Would you like to work with me?

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