Getting started right away with a Strategic Foresight
Strategic Foresight to inform, inspire and confront.
Future-oriented thinking and working requires quite a bit from the organization and colleagues. The challenge is that it is not just a nice lecture or workshop, but that it sticks and encourages people to have new ideas, a different perspective and a different way of working.
That’s why I like to do Future Explorations. Compared to a one-time lecture like Trends 2040 or a workshop, the Future Exploration is a longer collaboration: at least two workshops, a more thorough preliminary research and a more comprehensive final result.
The advantage for you is that this format sticks more. Exploration participants are more encouraged to think about the future and get to work with the insights.
Why Strategic Foresight?
What does foresight provide?
In assignments I have done, I especially notice that a futures exploration helps to get out of the delusion of the day. I also find that explorations are a safe place to discuss things with each other. This is because the images of the future are fictional, not predictions.
Companies and organizations go through the whole process from my 5A model or use a number of methods, such as scenario planning or backcasting. They use this to set or adjust their strategy, come up with innovations or engage with their customers, suppliers and even residents.
The usefulness of foresight is also scientifically based. Research by Rohrbeck and Kum (2018) shows that companies with foresight are 33% more profitable with 200% more growth.
My approach: 5A model
Each Strategic Foresight project is customized. Nevertheless, I use a systematic approach. My methodology is based on the Framework Foresight of Bishop and Hines. I also call my method the 5A model.
- Anticipate: Defining the scope and time frame. How far do we want to look ahead and what elements do we all include?
- Analyze: Analyzing trends and signals, for example in my lecture trends 2040.
- Articulate: Developing future scenarios, for example, through scenario planning.
- Assess: Adjusting plans and strategies based on insights from the previous steps and conducting small experiments.
- Act: Continuously monitoring and adjusting the course. Strategic Foresight activities are never finished.
I like to compare this method to sailing – you have to constantly read the environment and adjust your approach accordingly. During the kick-off, we discuss which steps are needed and how we are going to complete them.
In this video, I explain all the steps:
I worked as a Strategic Foresight Expert for:
Methods
What we will do during a Strategic Foresight project depends on the wishes and needs of the client. Below is a list of methods for each step of the 5A model. Think of it as a kind of menu.
| Step out of 5V model | Method |
|---|---|
| Looking ahead | Kick-off with project team |
| Explore | Horizon scanning / Trend audit / Interviews / Trend analysis with AI (see video) / Delphi method / Online consultation / Future Triangle / Implication tree / Impact Matrix |
| Imagining | Scenario Planning (see video) / Science Fiction Prototyping |
| Prepare | Strategy Session / Backcasting / Wind Tunnel / Strategy Playbox / Change Agenda |
| Anchor | Team or department for Futures Explorations / Chief Futurist Officer / Future Think Tank |
Interested in one or more methods? Make a no-obligation inquiry.
Throughout the process, I provide project management if desired, such as messages about interim progress, communication with workshop participants, and the like.
Curious about the background of the methods? Then read my article on futures research.
Future Expedition
Change is difficult. Something I recognize from my experience: most change comes about despite change management (after Professor Thijs Homan). After all, we cannot force people to think and work differently. At most, we can create the preconditions for people to take steps in this from intrinsic motivation.
I deliberately take a different approach than traditional consulting. My approach is primarily to teach colleagues or employees how to do it themselves.
For this reason, I usually call my contribution to a Future Exploration an Expedition. This term better reflects the joint quest. After all, we cannot predict the future. An expedition is therefore a good way to discover, shape and learn from the future together in a safe environment.
Expedition at the Physical Living Environment Department of Cooperation Organization De Wolden Hoogeveen.
Futures Research
What are all the steps of my 5A model?
Trend research with AI
How can you use AI to research trends?
Deep Research for Strategic Foresight
How can you use Deep Research to research trends?
Examples
Volvo
At the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, I worked on a case study on urban mobility for car manufacturer Volvo.
I expanded on this assignment in my article on futures research.
On future exploration of urban mobility in Copenhagen:
