Getting started right away with a Futures Study
Future exploration to inform, inspire and confront.
Future-oriented thinking and working requires quite a bit from the organization and colleagues. The challenge is that it is not just a nice lecture or workshop, but that it sticks and encourages people to have new ideas, a different perspective and a different way of working.
That’s why I like to do Future Explorations. Compared to a one-time lecture like Trends 2040 or a workshop, the Future Exploration is a longer collaboration: at least two workshops, a more thorough preliminary research and a more comprehensive final result.
The advantage for you is that this format sticks more. Exploration participants are more encouraged to think about the future and get to work with the insights.
Why Future Exploration?
What does foresight provide?
In assignments I have done, I especially notice that a futures exploration helps to get out of the delusion of the day. I also find that explorations are a safe place to discuss things with each other. This is because the images of the future are fictional, not predictions.
Companies and organizations go through the whole process from my 5V model or use a number of methods, such as scenario planning or backcasting. They use this to set or adjust their strategy, come up with innovations or engage with their customers, suppliers and even residents.
The usefulness of foresight is also scientifically based. Research by Rohrbeck and Kum (2018) shows that companies with foresight are 33% more profitable with 200% more growth.
My approach: 5V model
Each Future Exploration is customized. Nevertheless, I use a systematic approach. My methodology is based on the Framework Foresight of Bishop and Hines. I also call my method the 5V model.
- Looking ahead: defining the scope and time frame. How far do we want to look ahead and what elements do we all include?
- Explore: analyzing trends and signals.
- Imagining: developing future scenarios, for example with scenario planning.
- Preparing: adapting plans and strategy based on the insights from the previous steps and doing small experiments.
- Anchoring: continuously monitoring and adjusting the course.
I like to compare this method to sailing – you have to constantly read the environment and adjust your approach accordingly. During the kick-off we discuss which steps are needed and how we are going to complete them.
In this video, I explain all the steps:
I have tocurring explorations at sites including:
Methods
What we will do during a Future Exploration depends on the wishes and needs of the client. Below is a list of methods for each step of the 5V model. Think of it as a kind of menu.
| Step out of 5V model | Method |
|---|---|
| Looking ahead | Kick-off with project team |
| Explore | Horizon scanning / Trend audit / Interviews / Trend analysis with AI (see video) / Delphi method / Online consultation / Future Triangle / Implication tree / Impact Matrix |
| Imagining | Scenario Planning (see video) / Science Fiction Prototyping |
| Prepare | Strategy Session / Backcasting / Wind Tunnel / Strategy Playbox / Change Agenda |
| Anchor | Team or department for Futures Explorations / Chief Futurist Officer / Future Think Tank |
Interested in one or more methods? Make a no-obligation inquiry.
Throughout the process, I provide project management if desired, such as messages about interim progress, communication with workshop participants, and the like.
Curious about the background of the methods? Then read my article on futures research.
Future Expedition
Change is difficult. Something I recognize from my experience: most change comes about despite change management (after Professor Thijs Homan). After all, we cannot force people to think and work differently. At most, we can create the preconditions for people to take steps in this from intrinsic motivation.
I deliberately take a different approach than traditional consulting. My approach is primarily to teach colleagues or employees how to do it themselves.
For this reason, I usually call my contribution to a Future Exploration an Expedition. This term better reflects the joint quest. After all, we cannot predict the future. An expedition is therefore a good way to discover, shape and learn from the future together in a safe environment.
Expedition at the Physical Living Environment Department of Cooperation Organization De Wolden Hoogeveen.
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Future exploration
What are all the steps of my 5V model?
Scenario Planning
What is scenario planning?
Trend research with AI
How can you use AI to research trends?
Practice
So how do you put the 5V model into practice? Below are examples of assignments for Kennisnet, De Wolden – Hoogeveen and Volvo.
KnowledgeNet
In the fall of 2024, I did an assignment for Kennisnet. They help schools with ICT innovation and technology.
The request was to explore the future of neurotechnology in education. I guided the group through whole future research in four workshops. A topic I also have an affinity for.
This gives an idea of the steps and the result per step:
Looking Ahead
During the kick-off we determined the time (2035), the topic (only neurotechnology on the outside of the body, not internally) and the target audience (elementary and secondary schools).
Explore
We plot trends and items on the Future Triangle. For example: integration with AI, increasing focus on mental well-being and the student-teacher relationship.
Between those items we looked for tensions, such as: student-teacher relationship versus student-technology relationship. Or: education-driven developments versus capital-driven developments.
Imagining
Using the Impact matrix, we scored the stresses on impact and uncertainty. We went on to test the tensions with high impact and high uncertainty as axes for scenarios.
For example, one of the axes was education versus capital driven. After this, each group went to work on one of the four scenarios.
To make the scenarios even more palpable, we explored ways such as fictional products, game forms and incorporating dilemmas.
Prepare
Using a variation on backcasting, we translated the scenarios back to the here-and-now.
- What are the key factors in each scenario? Consider the acceptance of neurotechnology by students, parents and teachers.
- What are the crucial turning points in each scenario? For example: legislation protecting brain data or not.
- What can we do to positively influence those turning points?
Anchor
We discussed how to periodically recalibrate the foresight. Also who are the main recipients of the foresight, are they school boards, teachers or national politics? And how do we perpetuate futures thinking throughout the organization?
One component at the Prepare step is the Change Agenda:
De Wolden – Hoogeveen
In the expedition for team Physical Living Environment of De Wolden – Hoogeveen, we also went through the steps from the 5V model.
A nice addition to this assignment was a vlog during the step of Explore. For this, I interviewed residents from the municipalities of De Wolden and Hoogeveen about how they envision the future of the living environment.
Impression of the assignment at De Wolden – Hoogeveen:
Volvo
At the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, I worked on a case study on urban mobility for car manufacturer Volvo.
I expanded on this assignment in my article on futures research.
On future exploration of urban mobility in Copenhagen:
