Why Strategic Foresight?
In assignments, I have done, I especially notice that Strategic Foresight helps to get out of the day-to-day minutia.
I also find that strategic foresight projects are a safe place to discuss things with each other as collegues. This is because the images of the future are fictional, not predictions.
Companies and organizations go through the whole process from my 5A model or use a number of methods, such as scenario planning or backcasting. They use this to set or adjust their strategy, come up with innovations or engage with their customers, suppliers and even residents.
The usefulness of strategic foresight activities is also scientifically based. Research by Rohrbeck and Kum (2018) shows that companies with foresight are 33% more profitable with 200% more growth.
My approach: 5A model
Each Strategic Foresight project is customized. Nevertheless, I use a systematic approach. My methodology is based on the Framework Foresight of Bishop and Hines. I also call my method the 5A model.
- Anticipate: Defining the scope and time frame. How far do we want to look ahead and what elements do we all include?
- Analyze: Analyzing trends and signals, for example in my lecture trends 2040.
- Articulate: Developing future scenarios, for example, through scenario planning.
- Assess: Adjusting plans and strategies based on insights from the previous steps and conducting small experiments.
- Act: Continuously monitoring and adjusting the course. Strategic Foresight activities are never finished.
I like to compare this method to sailing – you have to constantly read the environment and adjust your approach accordingly. During the kick-off, we discuss which steps are needed and how we are going to complete them.
In this video, I explain all the steps:
I worked as a Strategic Foresight Expert for:
Methods
What we will do during a Strategic Foresight project depends on the wishes and needs of the client. Below is a list of methods for each step of the 5A model. Think of it as a kind of menu.
| Step out of 5A model | Method |
|---|---|
| Anticipate | Kick-off with project team |
| Analyze | Horizon scanning / Trend audit / Interviews / Trend analysis with AI (see video) / Delphi method / Online consultation / Future Triangle / Implication tree / Impact Matrix |
| Articulate | Scenario Planning (see page) / Science Fiction Prototyping |
| Assess | Strategy Session / Backcasting / Wind Tunnel / Strategy Playbox / Change Agenda |
| Act | Strategic Foresight Team / Chief Futurist Officer / Futures Think Tank |
Interested in one or more methods? Make a no-obligation inquiry.
Throughout the process, I provide project management if desired, such as communication with workshop participants, and the like.
Curious about the background of the methods? Then read my article on futures research.
Futures Research 5A model
What are all the steps of my 5A model?
Trend research with AI
How can you use AI to research trends?
Deep Research for Strategic Foresight
How can you use Deep Research to research trends?
Examples
Volvo
At the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, I worked on a case study on urban mobility for car manufacturer Volvo.
I expanded on this assignment in my article on futures research.
On future exploration of urban mobility in Copenhagen:
